Can International Climate Change Efforts Succeed Without The Us?

Summary
Claiming
The global and national context for accelerating U.S. climate action
Policy recommendations
Conclusion

Summary

The Us is rejoining international efforts confronting climate change in a crucial year. All members of the Paris Agreement are obliged to submit updated pledges for emissions reductions prior to a global climate meeting in November. President Joe Biden wants to re-found U.S. leadership on climate. Doing then volition crave the United States to make an ambitious but achievable pledge and to assist other nations in doing the same. The political landscape for enacting climate legislation in the United States is still catchy, only U.South. subnational actors take connected emissions reduction efforts during the Trump administration and volition be a key part of efforts going forward. These subnational actors can share their skills and ambition with their counterparts away. The United States also has an opportunity to atomic number 82 through its role in the global financial sector. It can encourage greener investing past requiring disclosure of climate risks and back up global efforts to finance emissions reduction and climate adaptation in developing countries.

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Claiming

2021 has the potential to be a year of rapid advancement on climate alter. The European Union, China, Japan, and Republic of korea accept all appear new and ambitious near- and long-term climate targets, and every member of the Paris Understanding is obliged to update their pledges prior to the November Briefing of the Parties (COP) coming together. Non-government actors and sub-national governments around the globe are also committing to aggressive long-term goals. Virtually of these goals focus on reaching net-zero emissions past 2050. As the international community gears up for the COP event, political attending to climate is the highest it has been since the runup to the Paris COP in 2015. Expectations are high for commitments that award the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to "well below" ii°C above pre-industrial levels.

Four years of U.S. absence from the global climate community — including global climate negotiations and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — accept left a large gap in international leadership and brownie.

In this context, the reaction in the global climate community to Joe Biden's election as U.S. president has been overwhelmingly positive. The earth sees the importance of U.S. activeness to limit overall global temperature rising, and President Biden'due south campaign, appointments — including former secretary of land John Kerry as special presidential envoy for climate — and early actions in office indicate his interest in a new arroyo to climate change. Even so, the Biden assistants immediately faces a hard challenge. Four years of U.S. absenteeism from the global climate community — including global climate negotiations and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — take left a big gap in international leadership and credibility. How does the new administration run across the moment? How does the United States regain its brownie on the world phase?

Since greenhouse gas emissions mix throughout the global atmosphere and oceans, emissions in one part of the earth impact the climate everywhere. The Paris Understanding calls for all countries to reduce emissions in line with their own development goals and political realities. But science suggests that a goal of net-zero emissions from the largest emitting countries by mid-century is necessary. In this context, credible U.S. activity is critical. Every bit the world'due south largest economy, second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, and superpower re-engaging on climate diplomacy, U.S. actions tin can either dampen or accelerate global action. If the United States fails to make commitments that the rest of the world views as serious, it volition exist harder to pressure level other countries to take more than serious action. Apparent U.Due south. action could form the footing for genuine leadership, every bit the United States displayed preceding the Paris COP through its bilateral commitments with China.

The good news is that Biden is appointing climate experts to positions throughout the executive branch and promises a "whole of government" approach to climate modify. Nevertheless, despite unified political command of the White House and (narrowly) Congress, the nation remains polarized on whether and how to respond to the climate crisis. Many actions that could move the United States toward a low-carbon economy practise not require legislation and could be implemented with piffling or no bipartisan support, but given that such deportment were reversed when the Trump administration replaced the Obama administration, these may non be plenty to demonstrate U.S. credibility. U.South. leadership in innovation, financial markets, and civil club provide additional opportunities for international engagement and action.

Changes in how nosotros understand the low-carbon transition are an additional source of good news. The conversation on climate action is shifting from 1 focused solely on costs to one centered around opportunities: for low-cost renewable electricity generation, for growth in jobs and communities, for greater justice for communities that have long been disproportionately afflicted by pollution, for development in countries that currently lack modern free energy services. The cost of renewable electricity has fallen chop-chop and technological advancements in other sectors, similar batteries, are reducing the price of decarbonization. A zero-carbon world is coming into view.

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The global and national context for accelerating U.S. climate activity

The United States sabbatum on the sidelines for four years of global climate action, and the world changed while we were away. The science about climate change became clearer and our allies and partners away are stepping upward their national climate strategies in response. Now that the United States is back in the game, they expect ambitious action, including a new U.South. climate target or nationally determined contribution (NDC). In this context, after whipsawing political positions on climate change, the United States must advance a credible strategy for robust and connected climate action at home that is seen every bit reliable and not discipline to reversals over fourth dimension.

In some ways, such activity at home faces headwinds, but in other ways there are reasons for optimism. With Congress finely counterbalanced, the pathway for successful legislation on climate has narrowed. Moreover, the White Firm and Congress are focused on the immediate crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting deep economic recession. At the aforementioned time, a strong gear up of well-nigh-term options exist to embed policies to support climate action, low-emission transportation, and clean free energy development into current discussions effectually economical recovery and investment. In this way, spending designed to pull the nation out of the recession would encourage investments to reduce emissions and increment resilience to climate change.

Some other element that has inverse in the past 4 years — and that supports enhanced domestic climate policies and international brownie — is the increased breadth and depth of sub-national action on climate in the The states. In fact, subnational actors with pregnant climate commitments (including states, cities, and businesses) represent roughly 70% of U.S. GDP — equivalent to the globe's 2nd largest economy, roughly the size of China'southward. Using policy authorities at their disposal, many of which are significant, these actors have advanced climate activeness across multiple sectors and greenhouse gases, including electricity, make clean transportation, land use, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and more. Even outside of federal regulation and legislation, such policies already are driving meaning reductions in U.S. emissions and could do more if expanded in line with recent trends. As another case, over 600 local governments in the United States have developed climate action plans. While the majority of these municipalities are lagging in their efforts to meet their targets, some big cities (Los Angeles, New York City, and Durham, North Carolina, for example) have achieved significant reductions and have highly qualified organizations to demonstrate how such reductions can exist accomplished.

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Policy recommendations

Confronting this backdrop, the The states can and should re-engage fully with the international community to support global action. To do so, it must act in five linked ways.

Equally the federal government dismantled its climate efforts, the subnational community substantially increased its climate commitments. As a issue, the United states of america has highly motivated and experienced actors outside the federal government.

Embed climate action into U.Due south. club. The core project for the U.s.a. this twelvemonth, and for years to come, is to develop and implement a national climate strategy that brings to carry all possible areas of policy action. In many ways the U.S. is playing take hold of-upwardly, but ane of import advantage developed during the Trump years. As the federal government dismantled its climate efforts, the subnational community substantially increased its climate commitments. Equally a outcome, the United States has highly motivated and experienced actors exterior the federal government. Federal action to catalyze and encourage these local efforts will be a key office of a bottom-up climate strategy, enabling more robust policy through aquiver political cycles at the national level.

Subnational actions are central, but some deportment must take identify at the federal level. New legislation is a offset potential contributor. Given the current makeup of Congress, deportment rooted in revenue enhancement credits, investment, and stimulus are likely to have some traction in the nearly term. Other policies will accept to exist evaluated in light of their potential support. A second possible contributor is administrative deportment that can be implemented by the executive co-operative, including regulatory actions under existing laws. Such administrative actions are less durable than legislative outcomes, but remain on the table equally options.

Advance subnational affairs. While not all countries are structured like the United States, lesser-upwardly leadership and implementation are fundamental to success in some form in all countries. The United States tin can use its non-federal actors in its diplomatic efforts to back up and eternalize climate action around the world. For this, U.S. cities, states, and businesses can interact with their counterparts in other countries to discuss opportunities and strategies, supported by the U.S. diplomatic effort. Such efforts could take place through a U.Due south. State Department Role of Subnational Diplomacy, as recommended past Anthony F. Pipa and Max Bouchet in their brief for this series.

Announce an ambitious yet credible U.Southward. nationally determined contribution. Every bit a key pillar of the Paris Agreement, countries around the earth regularly offer their NDCs and written report on progress. Each country's NDC is viewed as an indicator of the land's overall climate ambition. The U.S. target will likely have an outsized impact on overall global activity this yr. President Biden has committed to offering the next U.South. NDC at a leaders' meeting that he will host on Earth Day, April 22. In parallel with developing the national climate strategy, Washington volition be undertaking an assessment of the possible emissions reductions associated with such a strategy. International perception of the U.S. domestic commitment is important; the commitment must be seen every bit sufficiently ambitious to unlock the other diplomatic opportunities available to the United States. The goal of achieving emissions reductions of approximately fifty% below 2005 levels by 2030 is receiving a keen deal of attention, just is highly ambitious for the United States. Achieving such a target would be a challenge, simply the whole-of-society approach described in a higher place could ameliorate the probability of reaching such a goal.

Revisit U.S. domestic financial regulations and international climate finance. Mobilizing new sources of finance to back up a rapid economic and technological transition is cardinal to addressing climatic change. Here also, the United states of america provides an important link between domestic and international actions. Domestically, the U.S. financial system leads the world, but U.S. fiscal regulations do a poor chore of requiring disclosure of climate-related run a risk, including the physical risks associated with climate change. Contempo movement toward addressing these issues can exist accelerated. For instance, the Federal Reserve recently joined the Network for Greening the Fiscal System and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen fabricated clear in her confirmation hearing that she believes climate alter is a hazard to the financial system. Through its outsized influence on the global financial system, the United States can encourage greener investment. Greater disclosure of climate risks would permit investors to direct funds to low-carbon and resilient assets, potentially moving the needle in areas where policy lags behind.

The Usa must also exercise leadership in marshalling the financing that developing countries, specially the larger emitters, will need to raise their climate appetite, and to assistance poor and vulnerable countries conform to the already evident impacts of climate alter. This includes ensuring that adult countries alive upward to their commitment to mobilize $100 billion per yr in climate finance, a key tenet of the climate accords. For the The states, coming together its commitment to the Light-green Climate Fund, established nether the U.Due north. climate framework a decade ago, will exist an firsthand litmus test. The Usa must besides play a leadership office in unleashing the potential of the International Monetary Fund and the multilateral development banks in supporting more ambitious climate action. These institutions can play a office across their own financing by catalyzing private investment through reducing and sharing adventure. The COVID-xix pandemic provides an opportunity to "build back better" past tackling the interrelated challenges of job growth, climate change, pollution, and biodiversity.

Support international efforts and national strategies. The United States tin can employ its substantial foreign policy apparatus to engage with cardinal countries, partners, and allies around the world. In doing this, the United States tin first communicate how information technology will achieve its own aggressive goals, and so seek to sympathise how other countries conceptualize delivering on their own goals and work with them bilaterally or multilaterally to support their national climate strategies. Finally, information technology can work with partners around the earth to ensure that there is broad support for a strong event at the climate conference after this year.

Fundamentally, the climate challenge requires pushing the technological frontier in a dozen key sectors, from electricity to cars to building materials. In every sector the challenge is dissimilar, and in every sector at that place are different arrays of international partners, such as national and subnational governments and pioneering firms. The United States should marry with the U.K. authorities equally information technology advances key "campaigns" that reflect this sector-focused arroyo to deep decarbonization. The effort should place a few sectors, such as cars and electricity, where the United States is at the borderland and can especially shape the global endeavour.

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Decision

When the Paris Agreement was concluded in 2015, the world took a significant step toward addressing climate change. Paris established an architecture to encourage a global "race to the pinnacle" of climate ambition and catalyzed the first gear up of national climate targets as a down payment on a global emissions trajectory toward net cipher. The intervening years have seen some negative forces, such equally the U.South. opposition internationally and rollbacks domestically, and more recently the pandemic and economical recession. Nonetheless there have also been positive surprises — increased national ambition in many other countries, continued advancements in the quality and cost of clean technologies, and the groundswell of subnational action in the United States and elsewhere. U.S. global leadership on climate is again a possibility and the opportunity for a new, major pace on climate change is palpable. This moment has arrived just in time to have a adventure to put the world on a safer climate trajectory. U.Due south. activity today, with a joint domestic and international strategy, is critical for our shared global success.

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